Mathias Bourgue vs Nerman Fatic Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Over the past year, analysis of both players' performances yields intriguing insights into their form and potential outcomes for the match. Bourgue has won 55.17% of his matches (with a W/L record of 32/26), while Fatic demonstrates a higher match-winning percentage standing at 62.75% (W/L 32/19). This data illustrates a slight advantage for Fatic based on overall victories, providing an overarching head-to-head comparison.

Focusing on second serve performance in the last six months, Bourgue has secured 45.62% of points, marginally exceeding Fatic's 42.16%. This metric often aligns strongly with match predictions, suggesting Bourgue may have a slight edge in maintaining service games.

Return game efficiency is also pivotal, especially on opponents' second serves. Bourgue captures 43.65% of those points, yet Fatic leads here with 47%. For returns on first serves, Bourgue lags behind at 23.57% compared to Fatic's 31.44%. This significant stat indicates Fatic's superiority in return games, influencing match forecasts.

Evaluating their capability under pressure, Bourgue has successfully saved 51.89% of breakpoints, whereas Fatic's save rate is at 43.09%. This facet highlights Bourgue's resilience during critical moments of matches, providing key insights for game predictors.

Exploring their historical performances on different surfaces, both players exhibit their strongest performances on clay courts, with a similar win percentage of 60%. However, Bourgue shows a slightly better adaptability on grass with a win rate of 43% (W/L 3/4) compared to Fatic's struggles, marked by a 0% win rate (W/L 0/2).

Recent play has seen Bourgue contesting mostly in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments, with a 68.57% win rate in these $10K events (W/L 24/11). In contrast, Fatic, competing in the same level of tournaments, boasts an impressive win rate of 88% (W/L 22/3), signals higher proficiency in this tier of competitions, potentially pointing to Fatic as a favorite.

Considering opponent quality, Bourgue's adversaries over the last year have had an average rank of 198.74, showcasing tougher competition compared to Fatic's opponents, who averaged a rank of 264.06. This disparity could impact how each player handles the competitiveness of this upcoming matchup.

Performance in deciding sets is relatively comparable, with Bourgue winning 56% of these critical games compared to Fatic's 53% success rate over the same period. Breakpoint conversion reveals a notable difference: Bourgue has converted 23.64% of opportunities, while Fatic has excelled with a 40.35% conversion rate, offering him a key advantage during service breaks.

Taking all statistics into account, Fatic appears to be the marginal favorite, owing largely to his stronger return game statistics and superior performance in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments. However, the match could closely hinge on Bourgue's ability to capitalize under pressure and on his stronger second serve performance.